Archive for May, 2009

» Rallying For Fools and Lost dollars.

I felt fairly strongly a week ago that gas would rise, and it did. About 10% by the end of the week. I think that this trend will continue into the summer. The next downward drop that we can expect will be in September time frame I think. Then we should be back on the Read More… »

» Dead Cat Bounce Concern in Economy.

A memorial day short would have paid off if got out early enough yesterday. I felt like it would. Still, I am wary of the fundementals in oil right now. The Dollar is giving it a boost, and so is China.  I can’t help but take my eye off Natural Gas. It just seems to Read More… »

» Pressure

Natural Gas is so incredibly low right now. I think a minimum of a 30% gain by Christmas is absolutely feasible.  Oil is to high. For the short term at least. It will come down. The only short term support that I can see is a declining dollar. I would be buying oil and metals simply Read More… »

» Premature Chu

Here’s an interesting one. Secretary Chu thinks oil prices are rising out of economic optimism. I can’t be so certain that that is the case.  New Rule: 45 Dollar oil is new 20 Dollar oil of 1990′s. Once we accept that 45 is the new 20, and I would even venture to say that 50 Read More… »

» Contrasting Realities

There may be no graphic as stark as this. Cantrell production, from Mexico’s famed giant oil field. Keep in mind, this is not an estimation of future production trends, but things which are happening currently. It makes you wonder about other international fields which may be reporting false production data.  Just to keep things on Read More… »

» Oil Overbought for Holiday Weekend.

Oil has bounced back up over 60. There is no doubt that this is an incredibly volitile market. You have to remember that there is a considerable pshychological barrier at about 60/61. If we break the 61 bridge there will be almost no doubt that the market is overbought.  In my mind, this rally is Read More… »

» A Falling Dollar

This is absolutely one of the best articles I have seen on the relationship between Oil, Gold, and the Dollar. We can assume that inflation is on the way, and the author highlights US debt and fiscal policy as the central cause. Furthermore, he explains, we can assume that other countries will want to move Read More… »