Natural Gas Decline
Natural Gas is unbelievably low. By anyones standards. And there is no obvious let up in sight. Some companies really used to tout the power of the decline curves in an impending stablization of natural gas prices, but this simply has been proven wrong with time. The reality is that decline curves are going to Read More… »
Posted August 24, 2009 at 5:29 pm no commentsGas Market Fundamentals.
I know I just wrote about chatter on the possiblity of Natural Gas heading down into the two dollars. After looking at the Nat Gas markets I notice that something systemic has shifted. Henry Hub Futures are about on par with HH Spot. In fact, Spot is actually a little bit higher. Can we interpret Read More… »
Posted August 19, 2009 at 9:02 am no commentsNatural Gas Heading Down?
Since Monday people have been blabbering on about natural gas hitting the two dollar world. I have to admit that I am behind on my reading, but I just simply wasn't this pessimistic about NG. As of this morning some are expecting the trade to head below 3 dollar. Perhaps they are correct. There Read More… »
Posted August 19, 2009 at 8:23 am no commentsThe Cost of Climate Change Legislation.
The health care debate is not even entirely settled yet, and we know what is soon to follow, Climate Change Legislation. The proposed Cap and Trade legislation will be a hot topic this fall and winter, with promises from Harry Reid to pass legislation in 2009. Opposition to the bill is already beginning to surface, Read More… »
Posted August 18, 2009 at 6:39 pm no commentsOil’s On the Verge
The market opens in one minute. I am betting we get at least a dollar or two drop today.
Posted August 17, 2009 at 8:29 am no commentsAfrican Oil War Games
Now this is noteworthy. The US Army War College held war games that, for the first time ever, included scenarios concerning Africom. That is, the Army Command concerning the African Continental region. Nigeria comes to mind. The primary concern in the war scenario? Securing the oil. Naval Africom Cmndrs suggested that point forward their real Read More… »
Posted August 15, 2009 at 12:16 pm no commentsShale Gas Oasis
This is a great article that was actually being circulated within the industry before it went to publication in World Oil. I think that Berman is most likely correct and we may have overestimated EUR’s from unconventional gas plays. The Hyperbolic production declines curves everyone has used for forecasting could be a serious illusion. Consider Read More… »
Posted August 15, 2009 at 12:00 pm no commentsCrude Drop
I like being right. And yesterday I noted to watch for a drop in oil to the 65-67$ range. Today we traded down close to 67$, and I wouldn't be surprised if this continues towards 65$. Some people get awefully wild and suggest a drop to 60$ or below, I think that's a little much. Read More… »
Posted August 14, 2009 at 3:06 pm no commentsNatural Gas Realities
I think you could make a fairly good bet on natural gas right now. The rig count bottomed out about ten weeks ago, and we understand that rig count movements take about 14 weeks to show up in the markets. We can assume then that the September/October time fram might be the best trading time Read More… »
Posted August 14, 2009 at 9:08 am no commentsOil and Inflation
The consensus on Oil seems to be that a dip is coming. This would certainly appear correct if you look at rig counts. Here's the major problem though. The market is completely playing without fundamentals. How much our economy is truly growing is up for debate, and so is the current state of the dollar. Read More… »
Posted August 13, 2009 at 11:44 am no comments