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Independent 5 year Automotive industry forecasts for Hungary .
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Original Automotive market research and Automotive sector trend analysis for the Hungary Automotive industry.
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Competitive intelligence, Hungarian Automotive company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Automotive companies in Hungary .
The Hungary Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end- ; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International’s Hungarian Automotives Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian automotives market.
Key Benefits of Report
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Benchmark BMI’s independent 5-year Automotives Industry forecasts on Hungary to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hungarian Automotives market.
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Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Hungarian Automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary .
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Exploit the Latest Competitive Hungarian Automotives Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by production, sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Hungary .
Coverage
Executive Summary & Swot Analysis
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and trend analysis, and commentary on key company and industry headline events. Collection of SWOT studies on local automotives market, economy and business environment.
Regional Overview
Cross-border analysis on the structure, size and value of the automotives sector, including comparative historical data and forecasts on the region’s sales and production figures.
Business Environment Rankings
Comparative guide to the region’s business environment, ranking of the regional markets by CBU Output Growth, Vehicle Penetration Potential, Regulation, Market Competition, Economics Risk and Politics Risk. The rankings table provides BMI’s view on the competitiveness of the regional markets.
Market Overview
Outlook of local market, commenting on its structure, size and value.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including: Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type, including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses; total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape
Comparative company analyses and rankings by production, sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats)analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details, business activity, leading products and services.
Executive Summary
Hungary is facing its most trying economic challenge since its post-communist transition of the early 1990s. While growth is contracting across Europe, Hungary’s recession is expected to be particularly deep. The autos sector is being hit on two fronts: on the one hand, consumers are tightening their wallets, which is pulling down domestic sales. And on the other hand, falling export demand is forcing manufacturers to scale back production and dismiss workers. This is the case presented by BMI in this report.
In Q109, new car sales in Hungary fell by 33.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 26,372 units, according to the Association des Constructeurs Européens d’Automobiles (ACEA). The chairman of the Hungarian Car Importers Association (MGE) has said that new vehicle sales could plunge by nearly 50% this year to 85,000-90,000 units. The group’s earlier forecast had been for sales to fall to 120,000 units. This sharply decline reflects the swift deterioration in Hungary’s economy.
The commercial vehicle segment is also feeling the effects of the slumping economy as businesses cut back on purchasing new company cars. In the quarter, total sales of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) fell by 30.1% y-o-y, according to the ACEA. The segment showed some resilience last year with sales remaining almost flat. But the slump in Q1 suggests that LCVs are now taking the same downward trajectory as passenger car sales.
Manufacturers have been slowing down operations in response to the slump in exports and domestic sales. Germany’s Audi shut car production and scaled back engine production at its Győr plant before and after the Easter holiday in April. The automaker made similar production cuts during the Christmas holiday in 2008 and then again in February, with further plans to close the plant for three weeks in August.
General Motors Powertrain (GM Powertrain), the Hungarian subsidiary of US group General Motors (GM), moved to a four-day week from mid-April at its engine and transmissions manufacturing plant in Szentgotthard, although later that month, the plant’s CEO said that the cutback could be temporary.
Suppliers are also facing a sharp reduction in orders. Nevertheless, many suppliers still see Hungary as an attractive location for investment over the long term. German parts supplier Continental is looking to move one of its production units from Spain to Hungary. ContiTech Fluid Automotive Hungary, the supplier’s fluid technology division in the country, will be reportedly investing nearly EUR5mn for the installation of vulcanising furnaces, the extruder lines and assembling machines at its plants in Makó and Vac.
BMI forecast a 6.4% y-o-y contraction in the country’s GDP this year. Conditions are unlikely to improve dramatically, and our 2010 growth forecast stands at 0.1% y-o-y. On the whole, the passenger car market is set for slow recovery. By end-2013, sales are forecast to rise to 169,980 units, up by less than 5% from 2008 and well below the level reached in 2007.
Manufacturers are likely to keep cutting costs and slowing operations at their facilities through the year. Once the global economy picks up again, especially in the eurozone, output should begin to rise. The scrappage plans announced by several European governments may also provide short-term support for exports. BMI forecasts total production to reach 1.5mn units in 2013, up from 692,182 units produced in 2008.
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