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Independent 5 year Automotive industry forecasts for Ukraine.
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Original Automotive market research and Automotive sector trend analysis for the Ukraine Automotive industry.
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Competitive intelligence, Ukrainian Automotive company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Automotive companies in Ukraine .
The Ukraine Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end- ; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International’s Ukrainian Automotives Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian automotives market.
Key Benefits of Report
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Benchmark BMI’s independent 5-year Automotives Industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ukrainian Automotives market.
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Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Ukrainian Automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine .
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Exploit the Latest Competitive Ukrainian Automotives Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by production, sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Ukraine .
Coverage
Executive Summary & Swot Analysis
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and trend analysis, and commentary on key company and industry headline events. Collection of SWOT studies on local automotives market, economy and business environment.
Regional Overview
Cross-border analysis on the structure, size and value of the automotives sector, including comparative historical data and forecasts on the region’s sales and production figures.
Business Environment Rankings
Comparative guide to the region’s business environment, ranking of the regional markets by CBU Output Growth, Vehicle Penetration Potential, Regulation, Market Competition, Economics Risk and Politics Risk. The rankings table provides BMI’s view on the competitiveness of the regional markets.
Market Overview
Outlook of local market, commenting on its structure, size and value.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including: Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type, including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses; total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape
Comparative company analyses and rankings by production, sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats)analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details, business activity, leading products and services.
Executive Summary
The Ukrainian automotive industry faces a tough year as the country’s severe economic downturn reduces demand and forces manufacturers to lower output.
Consumer confidence in Ukraine has been devastated by the global financial crisis, which led to a near collapse of the country’s banking system. According to news agency Interfax, new passenger cars sales in Ukraine declined by 78.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 10,902 units in February 2009, pushing the Ukrainian car market down from seventh to 14th place in Europe. Automakers are responding to the recession by implementing drastic output cuts.
Our economic outlook indicates further depreciation of the Ukrainian hryvnia in 2009, which will further reduce demand for imported vehicles. The government is increasing import duties on cars in a bid to bolster the domestic industry, but such a protectionist measure could undermine trade in the longer term.
Even if consumers are moved to buy a new car, consumer financing remains difficult to secure. There are other significant risks ahead, especially the political uncertainty resulting from the struggle between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko.
Given these conditions, we see total vehicle sales falling to 559,400 units in 2009, down from an estimated 658,500 units last year. We forecast that manufacturers will reduce production to 396,670 units this year – from 452,530 units in 2008. However, strong export growth – particularly to Russia – is expected from 2010, with output likely to reach around 730,000 units by 2013.
However, Ukraine has untapped growth potential due to low rates of car ownership, which bodes well for the long-term outlook for the industry. BMI believes that over the course of the next five years, the Ukrainian market will be influenced by three main factors: income growth, the exchange rate and loan rates. Although the falling hryvnia is lowering demand for imports, if it recovers and strengthens too much against the euro, Ukrainian-made vehicles could lose price competitiveness in the EU. Ukrainian autos growth, therefore, depends on EU integration and exchange rate stability.
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