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Independent 5 year Automotive industry forecasts for Venezuela.
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Original Automotive market research and Automotive sector trend analysis for the Venezuela Automotive industry.
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Competitive intelligence, Venezuelan Automotive company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Automotive companies in Venezuela .
The Venezuela Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end- ; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International’s Venezuelan Automotives Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan automotives market.
Key Benefits of Report
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Benchmark BMI’s independent 5-year Automotives Industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Venezuelan Automotives market.
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Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Venezuelan Automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela .
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Exploit the Latest Competitive Venezuelan Automotives Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by production, sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Venezuela .
Coverage
Executive Summary & Swot Analysis
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and trend analysis, and commentary on key company and industry headline events. Collection of SWOT studies on local automotives market, economy and business environment.
Regional Overview
Cross-border analysis on the structure, size and value of the automotives sector, including comparative historical data and forecasts on the region’s sales and production figures.
Business Environment Rankings
Comparative guide to the region’s business environment, ranking of the regional markets by CBU Output Growth, Vehicle Penetration Potential, Regulation, Market Competition, Economics Risk and Politics Risk. The rankings table provides BMI’s view on the competitiveness of the regional markets.
Market Overview
Outlook of local market, commenting on its structure, size and value.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including: Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type, including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses; total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape
Comparative company analyses and rankings by production, sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats)analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details, business activity, leading products and services.
Executive Summary
Venezuela’s automotive industry, and its economy on the whole, are likely to suffer through a combination of domestic and external factors in 2009. As BMI cautions in its Q309 Venezuela Autos Report, ongoing structural changes within its economy could prevent a return to positive growth for a number of years.
Domestic autos demand continued its downward trend in Q109 due to the import restrictions imposed by the government. The Venezuelan Automobile Chamber of Commerce (Cavenez) estimates that the market has contracted by more than 38% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 49,264 units in Q1, while demand for imported vehicles has shrunk to 15,778 units, down by a massive 66% y-o-y during the period. With private consumption forecasted to contract by 10% y-o-y this year, BMI expects new vehicle sales to fall to nearly 160,600 units, down by nearly 40% y-o-y. Thereafter, in line with our expectation of a continued recession in 2010, we forecast demand to fall down further to around 153,800 during that year.
A striking contrast, however, appeared in the manufacturing segment where nearly 3.6% more vehicles, totalling 34,298 units, were produced in Q1. BMI see the marginal increase as a by-product of 2008’s low production levels. We therefore keep our production forecast unchanged at 98,900 units by end-2009, down by close to 23% y-o-y.
The relatively protective market, exemplified by the Chávez government’s stance on imports, has resulted in the country falling from fourth to fifth position in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for the autos industry in Latin America. While foreign carmakers have already been facing issues with the allocation of dollars, the industry has reported fresh labour issues and a lack of authorisation to use foreign currency at the official exchange rate (AAD). These are contributing to the difficult operating environment for existing carmakers, with General Motors (GM) and Toyota Motor having announced possibilities of withdrawing from the country. The former holds the leading position in the industry, both in terms of production and sales, while the latter stands as the third-largest carmaker, following Ford Motor.
The government introduced dual-fuel regulations in April, whereby 30% of all domestic vehicles produced must be powered by natural gas and gasoline. However, successful implementation of the complete plan could require relaxation of the existing structure.
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