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Independent 5 year Automotive industry forecasts for Pakistan.
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Original Automotive market research and Automotive sector trend analysis for the Pakistan Automotive industry.
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Competitive intelligence, Pakistani Automotive company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Automotive companies in Pakistan .
The Pakistan Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end- ; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International’s Pakistani Automotives Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani automotives market.
Key Benefits of Report
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Benchmark BMI’s independent 5-year Automotives Industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani Automotives market.
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Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Pakistani Automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan .
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Exploit the Latest Competitive Pakistani Automotives Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by production, sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Pakistan .
Coverage
Executive Summary & Swot Analysis
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and trend analysis, and commentary on key company and industry headline events. Collection of SWOT studies on local automotives market, economy and business environment.
Regional Overview
Cross-border analysis on the structure, size and value of the automotives sector, including comparative historical data and forecasts on the region’s sales and production figures.
Business Environment Rankings
Comparative guide to the region’s business environment, ranking of the regional markets by CBU Output Growth, Vehicle Penetration Potential, Regulation, Market Competition, Economics Risk and Politics Risk. The rankings table provides BMI’s view on the competitiveness of the regional markets.
Market Overview
Outlook of local market, commenting on its structure, size and value.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including: Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type, including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses; total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape
Comparative company analyses and rankings by production, sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats)analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details, business activity, leading products and services.
Executive Summary
Pakistan’s autos sector continues to underperform as end-FY09 (ending June 30) approaches, but as BMI points out in this report, some segments are showing signs of recovery. Although passenger car sales for the first 10 months of the fiscal year are still significantly lower than the same period in FY08, sales for the last three months achieved month-on-month (m-o-m) growth. However, year-to-date sales have been impacted by a particularly bad December, when only 2,689 cars were sold. As such, BMI has lowered its forecast to sales of 82,325, down by 50% year-on-year (y-o-y). Bus sales are performing in line with our previous forecast of a 45% decline, but the tractor segment has rebounded in the last two months, from sales of just 3,844 units in February to over 6,000 units in both March and April. BMI now expects the tractor segment to grow by 7% by end-FY09.
In order to further support sales, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has forwarded a proposal to the government recommending that it allows imports of cars over 10 years old. The report suggests that brands with local production facilities have a monopoly as imports of used cars are restricted to those of three years old or under. It adds that this gives the manufacturers the opportunity to hike prices, which is adversely impacting the market. There appears to be little advantage for the local manufacturers at present, however, as production remains almost 50% lower than the same period of FY08.
Given the poor prospects in the short term, Pakistan brings up the rear in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific autos industry on 42.4 out of a possible 100. The market is held back by low production growth potential and an average rating for sales growth. However, as a signatory to the Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights Agreement (TRIPS) under the auspices of the WTO, the country’s regulatory environment scores well. A number of free trade agreements also contribute to this criterion, although forming free trade agreements (FTAs) with non-Asian countries would improve this rating further. Despite low marks for bureaucracy and corruption, the market does score well for its long-term economic risk and policy continuity.
Japanese manufacturers still control most of Pakistan’s passenger car production and sales. Figures for FY08 show that Suzuki Motor-brand models represented 62% of total passenger car production and 51.7% of sales. The Suzuki Mehran also won back its place as Pakistan’s best-selling model after losing out to the Toyota Corolla in the previous financial year. The Corolla struck back in the first 10 months of FY09, however, selling 20,626 units compared to 11,142 for the Mehran. Honda Motor, which ranks third for car sales, dominates the motorcycle segment with a market share of 70% in FY08, which rose to 72.5% for 10MFY09.
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